Toolkit · Article 08 · Performance & Talent Management

Potential Rating Health Check

In about an hour, check if your potential ratings are fair. And check if they tell you more than the performance rating does.

3Tools
5Steps
60Minutes
FreeTo use
RATINGS PERF POT POTENTIAL ?
01

At a glance

What it is

A quick check on one score

Most firms rate potential each year. Few can say what it means.

So the score can hide bias. It can also just copy the performance score.

This kit helps you test both. You need one export and about an hour.

Who it is for

The people who own the ratings

HRBPs, talent leads and CHROs. Bring one person who can work with Excel.

When to use it

Three moments

  • Before the yearly talent review.
  • When your top potential list looks too much like one group.
  • When a leader asks, "What does potential mean here?"
Kyun, the Mimansa loris
Kyun

You rate potential every year. Shall we check what the score is really saying?

02

The five steps

About an hour in all. Do it in the weeks before your talent review, once the April to March ratings are final.

  1. 1Export the ratings10 min
  2. 2Split by gender10 min
  3. 3Compare the scores15 min
  4. 4Check what happened next15 min
  5. 5Take it to the talent review10 min
1
Step 1 of 5

Export the ratings

10 min

The HRBP or HR analyst does this.

  1. Pull last cycle's ratings from your HR system.
  2. Keep five things: ID, gender, both scores and manager.
  3. Remove names before you share the file.
Kyun

First, let's get the numbers in one place.

ID PERF POT
2
Step 2 of 5

Split by gender

10 min

The HR analyst does this.

  1. Fill the gender column from the dropdown.
  2. The cells at the bottom find the mean for each group.
  3. Note the share of women and men with the top potential score.
Kyun

Now split the list. What do the two groups look like?

WOMEN MEN
3
Step 3 of 5

Compare the scores

15 min

The HRBP leads this, with the talent lead.

  1. Look at the gap in performance, then the gap in potential.
  2. Ask why a group does better work but gets a lower potential score.
  3. See which managers gave big gaps. Did a new boss change a score?
Kyun

Two numbers. Do they point the same way?

PERF POT
4
Step 4 of 5

Check what happened next

15 min

The talent lead does this.

  1. Find people rated high potential two or three years ago.
  2. Check who was promoted, who did well and who left.
  3. Use the Proxy Test to see if potential just repeats performance.
Kyun

A score about the future. Did the future agree?

PERF
Done when

You know if the score has guessed the future well.

5
Step 5 of 5

Take it to the talent review

10 min

The HRBP presents. The CHRO or business head decides.

  1. Show the gap on one slide, with the managers' names removed.
  2. Ask the panel to define potential in one line.
  3. Agree what changes this cycle, and who owns it.
Kyun

You have the facts. Who should see them?

REVIEW
03

Example and how-to

Filled-in example · Gender Gap Checker

Sales team, 2025 to 26 cycle

A made-up sales team of 140 people in Pune and Chennai. Copy the shape, not the numbers.

People rated
140. Women 52, men 88.
Average performance (1 to 5)
Women 3.6. Men 3.4.
Average potential (1 to 3)
Women 1.8. Men 2.1.
Top potential score (3)
Women 10%. Men 22%.
Gap
Women rate higher on work, but lower on potential.
Managers with the biggest gap
Two regional heads. Both new this year.
Next step
Take it to the talent review in May. Ask each manager for evidence.
How-to guide · 4 minutes

How to check potential ratings for bias in an hour

  1. Export last cycle's ratings. Keep ID, gender, both scores and the manager.
  2. Paste them into the Gender Gap Checker.
  3. Read the gaps. Is one group higher on work but lower on potential?
  4. Sort by manager. Look for the biggest gaps.
  5. Check the Rater Change Tracker. Did scores move when the manager changed?
  6. Run the Proxy Test with two or three leaders.
  7. Take one slide to the talent review. Agree one change.
04

What you get

3 free tools. Each one is a single page or a single sheet.

Kyun

That's the kit. Two sheets and one page of questions.

05

Why it matters, and what's next

32%

lower chance for women to get the top potential score than men. Yet their work scores were higher.

Source: Benson, Li and Shue, "'Potential' and the Gender Promotion Gap", American Economic Review 116(2), 2026 (29,809 management-track staff at a large US retail chain)
9%

of CHROs strongly agree the nine-box grid works well for them, though 64% say their company uses it.

Source: Gallup, "Avoid Getting Boxed In by Conventional Succession Planning Methods", Aug 2024 (Gallup CHRO Roundtable surveys, 2023, n=95 and n=135)
14%

less likely: that is how often women were promoted each year at the same firm, compared with men.

Source: Yale Insights on Benson, Li and Shue study, Sept 2021 (nearly 30,000 workers at a large retail chain)
Kyun

Next, a way to rate readiness instead of potential.